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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.