A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
